Aon Political Risk newsletter – Quarter 2

Political Risk Quarterly Newsletter

Summary

This quarter we cast a spotlight on Latin America and ask whether there is an end to the populist axis that has been a feature of the region for some years.

The piece explores the impact of the steep terms-of-trade shock on the continent’s fiscal and external balances. The effects of such have divided in the region, with Venezuela and Brazil particularly hard-hit.

We also consider regional political risks, with a generally improving trend in Asia and a stabilisation in the Commonwealth of Independent States and Caucasus.

Country changes

In Q2 there were two downgrades and one upgrade:

Argentina –high to medium-high (improvement)

Comoros – medium-high to high (deterioration)

Guinea Conakry (very-high to high (improvement)

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